Archive for April, 2009

Consumer Confidence – is bad good?

Wednesday, April 8th, 2009

I’ve had at least two clients say that what’s needed is a restoration of Consumer Confidence.  That may be true with respect to the economy, but it’s decidedly untrue when it comes to stocks.  If you want to own stocks, you should try to buy them when consumer confidence is terrible.  After the Read the rest . . . , you’ll find an intriguing chart from Ned Davis Research, reproduced with the firm’s permission. (more…)

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Wall Street Strategists, so called

Wednesday, April 8th, 2009

This fits perfectly with my cynical view of Wall Street and its sell-side minions.  In short, as a group, they can’t be trusted, and this chart seems to confirm that.  If not, it at least begs the same question you ask yourself every time you read this blog, namely, why should I care what you have to say?  This chart comes courtesy of sentimenTrader, a service to which we subscribe.  (More information on the service can be found by clicking here.  A free trial is available.)

The chart below is comprised of five plots.  First, pay attention to plots 1 and 3.  They show the performance of the S & P 500 (i.e. stocks) and the Treasury Long Bond (i.e. bonds).  Next, look at plots 2, 4, and 5, which show the consensus of all of the–presumably–wisest that Wall Street has to offer, the strategists, the big-bucks folks at the top of food chain, with respect to their recommended asset allocations. (more…)

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Protected: Norfolk Southern

Tuesday, April 7th, 2009

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Gold at a critical juncture

Monday, April 6th, 2009

In my opinion, gold is at a critical juncture.  There are any number of reasons for the decline in gold of late, not the least of which is the truism that sellers are more anxious to sell than buyers are to buy.  As to why that may be, I like the idea of a decrease in risk aversion.  That is, gold has been a safety play of late, and with both economic news becoming less worse and stocks improving a bit, I like that explanation.  It may also be that, as a result of the G20 meeting, some nations are looking to sell some gold.  Some commentator smarter than I will be able to look at official figures and determine that. (more…)

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Weekly Recap & Outlook – 4/3/09

Friday, April 3rd, 2009

Tower Private Advisors

Capital Markets Recap . . . abbreviated

March 27, 2009 . . . performance figures as of 11:18

Below

  • Abbreviated but still indispensable
  • Stocks running on fumes?
  • Jobs, jobs, jobs–and not Steve

This week, the Dow 30 rose by 140.26 points, or 1.80%, to 7,916.44. The S & P 500 (SPX) rose by 12.39 points, or 1.52%, to close at 828.33. The NASDAQ Composite rose by 50.90 points, or 3.29%, to 1,596.10. The S & P Mid-cap index rose by 12.94 points, or 2.59%, to close at 511.77. The Russell 2000 small-cap index rose by 16.06 points, or 3.74%, to close at 445.06. Finally, the Morgan Stanley EAFE (Europe Australasia & Far East) index rose by 22.20 points, or 3.75%, to close at 614.70.

(more…)

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