Archive for June, 2009

Ned Davis Research S & P 500 2009 Cycle Composite

Monday, June 29th, 2009

Only six months after the start of the new year, I thought it would be appropriate to post Ned Davis Research’s view of how 2009 might unfold.  NDR’s 2009 Cycle Composite for the S & P 500 is derived by weighting equally:

  •  the 1-year seasonal cycle
  • the 4-year Presidential cycle; and
  • the 10-year Decennial cycle.

As the note points out, it’s the direction of the chart that’s important rather than the level.  So, for example, we should have expected some sideways action for much of May and June rather than that it looks like June should have ended higher than it started.  It looks like we should have some smooth sailing until the end of summer, when we’re in for a good smackdown into late Autum.

cycle-composite1
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Weekly Recap & Outlook – 06.26.09

Friday, June 26th, 2009

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Below

  • Abbreviated Capital Markets Recap
  • Lots of economics
  • Markets closed next Friday

Capital Markets Recap

June 26, 2009 (more…)

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Weekly Recap & Outlook – 06.19.09

Friday, June 19th, 2009

Tower Private Advisors

Below

  • Broken record
  • China
  • Economy still not showing real improvement

Capital Markets Recap

June 19, 2009

They say that to a man with only a hammer everything looks like a nail.  Or maybe the proper saw is, “if you torture the data [chart] long enough, it’ll tell you what you want to hear.”  Still, this is the same chart we’ve seen for the past two weeks, and it still tells a story, in contrast to the supposed fundamentals of the economy and companies. (more…)

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Weekly Recap & Outlook – 06.12.09

Friday, June 12th, 2009

Tower Private Advisors

Below

  • More sideways action . . . something brewin’
  • Less bad news no longer enough

Capital Markets Recap

June 12, 2009

The non-drama that is the sideways action in the S & P 500 continued this week, and I include a refreshed version of the graph that has graced this space for the last two Fridays.  Notice that we moved from one trading range to another.

trading-range

This one, however, has another technical feature that suggests it’s leading up to something big.  This chart is shown with prices plotted as candlesticks, which the Japanese began using hundreds of years ago to track rice prices.  In a candlestick, there are two color possibilities.  A solid candle (the body, rather) indicates a day when prices closed lower, in which case, the upper vertical bar is the open, the bottom is the close.  An empty candle (black outline, here) represents a day when prices closed higher than they opened.  The wick, or vertical, lines represent the day’s entire trading range. (more…)

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Unemployment and Revisionist Past and Future

Thursday, June 11th, 2009

Take a look at the chart below.  It shows three unemployment measures going back to 1994.  The red line is the “Official” (quotations much called for here) rate, the one that the talking heads mention.  The gray line is the broadest measure of unemployment.  I referenced it in last week’s WR&O.  The blue line represents an estimate of the unemployment rate, as measured (and dispensed with) during the Clinton administration.  That measure included “discouraged” workers, those who had given up looking for work.  They weren’t only discouraged, they were discouraging, to the populace, so they were removed from the unemployment rolls until their attitudes shaped up.

Kindly note the current level of unemployment using that measure:  20+%, or 1 in 5.  If I’m not mistaken, reported unemployment, at one time in the ’30s reached 3 in 10, while the most commonly reported Great Depression unemployment rate was–envelope, please–20%.

This data came from John Williams’ excellent Shadow Government Statistics–thus, the “SGS” in the legend–website.  Available here or from the Blogroll on the home page.  Fantastic, if not depressing, stuff.

Chart of U.S. Unemployment

Chart courtesy of ShadowStats.com

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