Archive for April, 2010

Weekly Recap & Outlook – 4.30.10

Friday, April 30th, 2010

Tower Private Advisors

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  • Greece
  • Boring economics

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Nice wheels – Ferrari 458 Italia

Thursday, April 29th, 2010

Absolutely no investment connection here at all, but absolutely beautiful.

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PIGS Credit Default Swaps blowing out

Tuesday, April 27th, 2010

Well, it’s official–if not shocking, apparently, to some market participants:  Greece has been downgraded to junk status, and Portugal got a two-notch credit rating drop to A-.  The Greece move seemed like a foregone conclusion, and yet it seems to have caught Wall Street off-guard.  Stocks fell sharply after the announcement.

Here’s a look at credit default swap pricing today.  The table is sorted by the percentage change (circled heading).  The right-most column is the implied probability of default.  This issue is not going away.  The problems with each of these countries is too much debt, a problem that can’t be solved with more debt.  It’s going to require fundamental and hard changes to budgets.  Unfortunately for the governments there, the citizenry doesn’t just write letters to their Senators and Representatives in Congress, they break windows.

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Protected: White out

Monday, April 19th, 2010

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How different it might have been

Monday, April 19th, 2010

News this morning included news that China is cracking down on housing loans, tightening up (i.e. raising downpayments), trying to rein in speculators, and generally trying to limit/prevent its housing bubble.  Chinese stocks were off by about 5.0%.  I say the medicine is going to be worse than the cure.  Our economy might still be on two feet instead of having had one amputated had the authorities here not tried to perpetuate our housing bubble, but instead tried to limit its damage.  In fact they hid a blind eye, saying things like, “housing risks are contained.”

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