Archive for the ‘Strategy’ Category

Emerging Markets as an Asset Class

Wednesday, November 4th, 2009

To ignore emerging markets as an asset class, an area to invest, is to avoid the fastest growing economies in the world.  From the much-ballyhooed BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China) to Thailand and Vietnam, these much younger economies–both in the state of their economies, as well as the equally important demographics of their nations, nothwithstanding China*–should be considered for a part of your portfolio.  In our asset-allocation models, the Global Portfolios, we have a 10% allocation to Emerging Markets.

Marc Faber speaks with an accent (always cool), has a ponytail (uh, the ’90s are over, but he’s probably a renaissance man and it’s okay), wears a vest with his suit, and probably wears Prada loafers.  He does, however, sport buttondown collars, which strikes me as a little too casual–a spread collar would be a better choice.  He also publishes the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, which is the real reason for including the clip, below.  In it, Mike Santoli, of Barron’s, interviews him at Barron’s Successful Investing Conference.  In it, Marc presents the case for emerging market stocks.


Allen Sinai and Jeffrey Saut on CNBC

Wednesday, July 8th, 2009

Here’s a pretty good interview from two savvy dudes.  Jeff Saut, in particular, doesn’t have an axe to grind like a lot of folks.  He calls ‘em like he sees ‘em.  Takeaways from him:  1.) market’s lows were seen in March; won’t be revisited.  2.) If support between 870 – 880 doesn’t hold we’ll be taking “a quick trip to 820,” which is close to the head and shoulders measured move.



Trouble brewing . . . maybe

Wednesday, April 15th, 2009

Here’s an example of something that concerns me in light of the current rally. Namely, that price and volume should go together, but now they’re not. That is, in a normal environment–one where things are acting right–rising prices are accompanied by rising volume, and falling prices are accompanied by falling volume. The latter is one reason that folks could say that the market’s bottom testing had been successful in March even though it occurred at lower prices than in November. (more…)


One Green Light

Tuesday, April 14th, 2009

We place a lot of confidence in the services of BCA Research and Ned Davis Research, two independent investment strategy research firms.  We’ve been waiting for them to give the thumbs-up for stocks before increasing our exposure.  Yesterday, NDR’s Chart of the Day was titled Getting More Aggressive–Now Overweight Equities, Favoring Small-Caps [my underlining].  (more…)


Secular Bull and Bear Markets

Wednesday, March 18th, 2009

In speaking of securities market cycles, we are concerned with four types:  secular, cyclical, seasonal, and random, or noise.  Martin Pring, in his book Technical Analysis Explained, refers to these as influences on a trend.    After a brief review of each, this post will look at the notion of secular, or long-term, bull and bear markets.