Posts Tagged ‘October’

S & P 500 Seasonality – cue the Jaws music

Thursday, August 19th, 2010

We’re coming up on that treacherous time of year . . . September and October.  It didn’t matter in 2009, because most were all beared-up for the Fall.  This year also seems like the year of disbelief.

We’re in the worst of the four years of a Presidential administration–who’d have noticed?–according to history stretching back to 1900.  Next year will be the third year, which has historically been the best.  (It’s also the year when some say we meet the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but we can worry about them when we see ‘em.) 

As to seasonality, it has tended to be pretty mild in year 3, although it does suggest a lower low in September.  Based on the lousy year so far, though, that’s only a 6% move lower.

For now, our thinking is that we stick with the consensus of our various services, which is to be modestly over-weighted to equities, but it would be hard to fault one who raised cash in anticipation of a lousy September/October.  After all, it’s easier to make up for lost opportunities than it is to make up for lost losses.