1938 Update

I thought it was time to revisit the 1938 comparison, which is doing well, thank you.  Here’s a look at it.  The bottom panel shows 1938 – 1939.  The axis labels refer to the upper panel.


If it continues to unfold now as it did then, we could have another ~17.5% to go on the upside.  That will get us a total percentage return on the move equivalent to the 62.2% move in 1938.  That move peaked on October 20.

In sum, we’ve enjoyed about 63% of the 1938 move; some might say the easy money has been made.  As we approach the 1097 level on the S & P 500 and/or October 20, we’ll need to be alert, but, hey, 1000 is going to sound pretty good.


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