Only six months after the start of the new year, I thought it would be appropriate to post Ned Davis Research’s view of how 2009 might unfold. NDR’s 2009 Cycle Composite for the S & P 500 is derived by weighting equally:
- the 1-year seasonal cycle
- the 4-year Presidential cycle; and
- the 10-year Decennial cycle.
As the note points out, it’s the direction of the chart that’s important rather than the level. So, for example, we should have expected some sideways action for much of May and June rather than that it looks like June should have ended higher than it started. It looks like we should have some smooth sailing until the end of summer, when we’re in for a good smackdown into late Autum.