If you’re new to the blog you might not have picked up on my disdain for Wall Street analyst and strategist types. It stems, largely, from their view from behind rose-colored glasses and their affinity for perennial market return forecasts of 10%.
Here’s a slide borrowed from Jeremy Grantham’s outfit GMO. They recently picked up James Montier from Societe Generale. The slide shows analyst forecasts in red and actual results (“outturns” in this case) in black.
To be fair, these results are for analysts on average. There may be a few that have an uncanny knack for forecasts, but as a group they’re pretty lousy.