Comments on: Weekly Recap & Outlook – 08.14.09

By: dave

dave — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 16:01:09 +0000

Re: Steve Schwarzman & John Paulson had you see these two stories:

http://realestate.msn.com/blogs/listedblogpost.aspx?post=1229160&_blg=1,1229160

Shows that it’s helpful to have friends at the Fed that one can lobby to rescue one from bad derivative investments.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article6736074.ece

I’ll never be convinced that when one takes a $30 mln hit on their one-of-a-kind “baby” that one doesn’t “need” the money. “Need” is relative. And no, i don’t buy that he broke even renting “the boat for more than £300,000 a week.”

By: dave

dave — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 15:05:05 +0000

I prefer tracking the index LT & the vehicle that is actually traded ST. IOW, if index is down & ETF is up i’m all over the ETF long & vice versa.

But in the case that we’re discussing here it appears to be apples & oranges … worrisome.

This morning’s opening kind of surprised me. OTOH, the overnight & pre-mkt action did not. Yesterday’s rally looked like the end of an abc 2nd wave with 3rd wave damage today. However, we couldn’t take out Monday’s lows & then stalled below yesterday’s highs. Smells like range trading thru Fri to me.

Keep up the humor. It’s appreciated.

By: Graig Stettner

Graig Stettner — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 14:50:54 +0000

Sounds like a little non-confirmation in the semi index(es) and ETFs. Like you, that would make me distrustful. Also, like you, I’ve wrestled with the issue of ETFs v. indexes, and I tend to side with the indexes. Do you buy the breakout in the index or the ETF? Seems like the index is the more important to watch.

By: dave

dave — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 07:16:19 +0000

Graig, i tried emailing you (graig.stettner@towerbank.org) the following Monday evening, but it wouldn’t go thru.

Tongue-in-cheek humor to make a point is always appreciated by me.

New recommended portfolio position: fetal

Recession over [INSERT BOILERPLATE HERE]

…although one of the frequent states of economists. So if they weren’t confused, would they be plussed?

Librarian leanings.

Graig,

I’m an ex-stkbrkr & later an ex-member & floor trader of a commodities exchange. I’m an active trader & also manage some funds. I just very recently discovered your blog via Google alerts & have been worried since i didn’t see any postings after July 31.

Despite having some short & put positions for near-term weakness i have been looking for a mini-blow off before a short-term decline in Sept/Oct. We may still get that blow off. However, now since mkt indices are so far below their 20Ema, i’m using that as a stop to STAY short.

I just realized today that my canary-in-the-coal mines, my lead husky $SOX is out of sync with SMH, XSD, PSI, IGW, & USD, vis-a-vis their June highs.

$SOX is indicating more weakness dropping below its June highs & breakout. SMH, XSD, PSI, IGW, USD, are all showing relatively more strength considerably above their June highs & breakouts.

This makes me a little distrustful of the weakness indicated in $SOX. I wonder if this difference betw $SOX & the semi’s ETFs is only due to composition of their holdings. If so which is a truer depiction of the sector … $SOX or the ETFs ??

Graig, any thoughts ?

Regards,
dave